Future Energy Predictions

ACCORDING to a study by oil giant BP, energy consumption in developed countries in 2030 will be only slightly higher than today, while consumption in emerging markets will double.

The BP Energy Outlook 2030 provides their projections for future energy trends, estimating that world primary energy consumption grew by 45 percent over the past 20 years, while over the next two decades it predicts growth of 19 percent.

The Outlook also forecasts global energy consumption will average 1.7 percent a year from 2010 to 2030, with growth decelerating gently from 2020 onward.

Countries outside of the Organisation of ­Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) area are expected to see an energy consumption rise of 68 percent, or more, by 2030, averaging 2.6 percent a year growth from 2010. If correct it would mean non-OECD countries will account for 93 percent of global energy growth over the next 20 years.

The report detailed that in OECD countries energy consumption will be just 6 percent higher than today, with growth averaging 0.3 percent to 2030. More surprisingly, OECD energy consumption per head is forecast to decline by 0.2 percent per year.

Energy intensity, measured as energy per unit of GDP, will improve at an increasing rate. BP state this trend will reduce overall growth of primary energy globally in almost all key countries and regions.

The Outlook also predicts that the mix of fuels is likely to shift slowly, due to the long lifetimes of energy-consuming assets. Gas and non-fossil fuels are predicted to gain share at the expense of coal and oil.

Picture by Richard Croft

Monday 24th January 2011


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